Agricultural Worker

Agricultural-Worker Population Estimates—2016 Update

fanlundk@lsc.gov — Mon, 17 May 2021 19:28:40 +0000

Agricultural-Worker Population Estimates—2016 Update fanlundk@lsc.gov Mon, 05/17/2021 - 15:28

2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimation Methodology

In 2016, LSC updated the estimation methodology and the estimate of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population for the first time in over twenty years. The estimates reflected input LSC received during three public comment periods from January 2015 through July 2016.

The 2016 estimation methodology is set forth in three documents:

January 2015 initial population estimate methodology.
- Memorandum from ETA to LSC with estimates of LSC-eligible agricultural worker population and explanation of estimation methodology (January 21, 2015).
- The methodology was provided with the initial estimates reported to the LSC Board in January 2015.
February 2016 methodology for estimate of additional non-U.S. citizens who are victims of violence or crime.
- Estimate of the Population of Agricultural Workers Eligible for LSC-Funded Services Pursuant to 45 C.F.R. § 1626.4—Anti-Abuse Laws provided to the LSC Board (January 2016)
August 2016 adjustments to the methodology based on public comments.
- Memorandum from ETA to LSC adopting three adjustments to the methodology (July 2016).
- The August adjustments were provided in conjunction with the Final Estimates–Tables I–VI (Excel), which the Board adopted in August of 2016

Past Notices and Public Comments

August 2016—Final Estimates Adopted by LSC for 2017–2018 Implementation

Final Notice—Adoption of Estimates of Agricultural Workers (August 8, 2016)
- Appendix A—July 2016 ETA and JBS Memorandum
- Final Estimates–Tables I–VI (Excel)

July 2016–Final Revised Estimates for Consideration by the LSC Board

2016 Ag Worker Data Final Order–LSC Board DRAFT–July-14-2016

April 2016 Notice—Revisions to the Michigan Estimate

LSC published in the April 4, 2016 Federal Register a notice for comment on alternative estimates of the LSC-eligible agricultural worker population in Michigan. Those estimates, which appear below, were submitted by the Michigan Advocacy Program in the comments to the February 2016 notice.

February 2016 Notice—Revised Estimates

LSC published materials for comment in the February 5, 2016 Federal Register. Comments were due March 21, 2016. The materials and comments appear below. Please direct any questions to Mark Freedman, Senior Associate General Counsel, at mfreedman@lsc.gov.

Federal Register Notice: Request for Comments—Agricultural Worker Population Data for Basic Field–Migrant Grants
- Appendix A: Estimate of the Population of Agricultural Workers Eligible for LSC-Funded Services Pursuant to 45 C.F.R. § 1626.4—Anti-Abuse Laws
- Tables I–VII (Excel Document)
  - Table I—Updated Estimates of the Size and Geographic Distribution of The LSC-Eligible Agricultural Worker Population and the Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Those Estimates.
  - Table II—National and State Estimates of the LSC-Eligible Agricultural Worker Population—Summary Table.
  - Table III—Percentages of Agricultural Workers by National Agricultural Worker Survey (NAWS) Region and State Who Are Authorized and in Poverty.
  - Table IV—Average Numbers of Dependents per Farmworker by National Agricultural Worker Survey (NAWS) Region and State.
  - Table V—Number and Percentage of LSC-Eligible Agricultural Workers in Each State Who Are Crop, Livestock, and Forestry Workers.
  - Table VI—Number of Unauthorized and Below-Poverty Farmworkers Eligible for LSC-Funded Services Pursuant to Anti-Abuse Provisions of 45 CFR § 1626.4(3).
  - Table VII—LSC-Eligible Agricultural Worker Population by State: Comparison of Current Population Estimates and Updated January 2016 Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (ETA) Estimates.

Comments

February 2015 Notice—Initial Estimates

On February 3, 2015, LSC posted in the Federal Register a request for comments regarding updating the Basic Field—Migrant grants based on new data from the Department of Labor regarding agricultural workers and their dependents. Written comments were due by April 20, 2015. On July 27, 2015, LSC posted in the Federal Register a statement that it will make public additional information underlying the new data, contract with the Department of Labor for assistance addressing issues raised in the comments, consider development of revised data, and seek public comment on any revised data and a revised implementation plan. Implementation would begin January 2017

Federal Register Notice Seeking Public Comment (written comments due by April 20, 2015)
Federal Register Notice of Extension of Comment Period to April 20, 2015 (March 19, 2015)
Federal Register Notice Regarding Further Actions in 2016 (July 27, 2015)
- LSC Memorandum to the Operations and Regulations Committee (January 21, 2015)
- LSC Management Report on Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update (updated January 30, 2015)
- LSC Management Report Appendices (updated January 30, 2015)
- LSC Management Report with Appendices as a single document (updated January 30, 2015)

Public Comments on February 2015 Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update

Agricultural Worker

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Agricultural Worker Population Estimate—2021 Update

fanlundk@lsc.gov — Mon, 17 May 2021 19:25:24 +0000

Agricultural Worker Population Estimate—2021 Update fanlundk@lsc.gov Mon, 05/17/2021 - 15:25

Final 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates (April 2022)

Summary

In a December 10, 2021, Federal Register notice, LSC invited comments on the estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA). LSC used the preliminary estimates that ETA provided for grant allocations starting January 1, 2022.

Based on the comments received in response to the Federal Register notice, ETA has revised the estimates published in December. The comments and the revisions are summarized below and in the Federal Register 87 FR 26228 (May 3, 2022). Because the initial grant allocations for 2022 were based on the preliminary estimates published in December 2021, LSC will adjust the grant allocations for the remainder of 2022 to ensure that total grant allocations for 2022 are based on the final estimates.

Summary of Comments and Revisions

The National Legal Aid & Defender Association, Agricultural Worker Program Section (Section) submitted the only comments in response to the Federal Register notice. They provided no substantive comments about the preliminary estimates but indicated they had not fully analyzed the preliminary estimates and therefore might request adjustments to the 2021 estimates once their analysis was complete.

After the comment period, the Section submitted questions about the data sets and methods used to estimate the population of H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers. After reviewing the Section’s comments, ETA determined that a revision of the estimation methodology could provide a more accurate estimate of the number of these H-2 workers. ETA proceeded to revise the methodology and provided more accurate estimates of the H-2 worker population and the total agricultural worker population. The Section also requested additional information to enable its members to better understand the estimation methodology. ETA provided additional supplemental materials in response to this request. LSC is using ETA’s revised estimates for 2022 grant allocations.

Conclusion

LSC has updated the population estimates of agricultural workers based on the revised methods that ETA has used to estimate the population of H-2 workers and is using the revised estimates for its 2022 grant allocations. The revised estimate of the number of H-2 workers increased the estimate of the national agricultural worker population by .16% and resulted in small increases or decreases in state estimates. This revision will result in corresponding changes in 2022 grant allocations for Agricultural Worker service areas. Because the initial grant allocations for 2022 were based on the preliminary estimates published in December 2021, LSC will adjust the grant allocations for the remainder of 2022 to ensure that total grant allocations for 2022 are based on the final estimates.

The following materials provide detailed information about the revised estimates and ETA’s estimation methods and supplemental materials. (Note that the ETA estimates and estimation methodology were developed under contract by JBS International Inc., the ETA contractor for the National Agricultural Worker Survey.)

Table: Final Estimates of the 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population, Summary Table. Provides ETA’s final 2021 estimates nationally and by state of the LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population. This replaces “Table I: Summary Table of National and State Estimates of The LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population” published in December 2021.
Table: “Final Estimates of the Number of H-2 Workers by State.” Provides the updated estimates of the number of H-2 Workers by state and compares the updated estimates with the initial estimates.
Memorandum: JBS International, “Using Fiscal Year 2016 2017 and 2018 Data to Estimate the Number of 2017 H-2 Workers.” Explains the methods used to develop revised estimates of H-2 workers with the data available from the Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC).
Table: “Top-Down State-Level Estimates of Active Farmworkers-2021.” Shows the data and calculations from which the figures in the November 5th memo, Appendix B, Table 1, Column B “Total Number of Active Farmworkers in the State” are derived.
Memorandum: JBS International, “Assessment of the Major Changes Between the 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Poverty Population Estimates.” Provides a high-level overview of farm labor market changes over the last decade that likely account for the changes in five components/factors in the 2021 and 2016 population estimates.
Table: Data Sources and Calculations -- Final Estimates of the Numbers of H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers. This replaces Table III published in December 2021.
Table: “Comparison of the Preliminary and Final 2021 Estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population.” Shows the differences between the preliminary and final estimates of LSC Agricultural Worker Population by state.
Table: “Major Differences between 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates.” This replaces the table with the same name published in December 2021.

2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates (December 2021 Update)

Public Comments

LSC invites public comment on the 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA).

Deadline for comments: January 10, 2022
Notice published in the Federal Register with instructions for submitting comments. 86 Fed. Reg. 70,539 (Dec. 10, 2021)
Written comments must be submitted to agworkerpopulation@lsc.gov with attachments in Acrobat PDF format.

Background

The ��˶�� (LSC) has received 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population provided LSC by the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA). LSC will use these population estimates to allocate funding to service areas for Basic Field—Agricultural Worker grants for 2022, 2023, and 2024.

The “LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population” is comprised of the populations of active agricultural workers, agricultural workers who are temporarily out of the agricultural workforce, retired agricultural workers, and dependents of these agricultural workers, who are in poverty and are U.S. citizens (or who meet the LSC eligibility criteria for services if they are not U.S. citizens).

The ��˶�� (LSC) and the Department of Labor (DOL) Employment and Training Administration (ETA) executed an interagency agreement under which ETA agreed to provide LSC with population estimates on which to allocate funding for specialized legal assistance to the LSC Agricultural Worker Population. JBS International, Inc. (JBS), ETA’s contractor for the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS), undertook the estimation work, per the NAWS contract terms.

The 2021 estimates update those ETA provided to LSC in 2016. The 2021 estimation methodology is based on the methodology used to develop the 2016 estimates. The 2021 methodology incorporates changes to improve the accuracy and validity of the estimates. (The 2016 estimates, estimation methodology, and process for the development of the estimates can be accessed at: Agricultural-Worker Population Estimates—2016 Update).

For questions about the estimation methodology, the estimates and related materials, email: agworkerpopulation@lsc.gov.

2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates Informational Materials

Information about the 2021 estimates is provided in the following documents:

Memorandum from JBS International Inc. to Daniel Carroll, Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration/Office of Policy Development and Research, “Estimating the National Size and State Distribution of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population,” November 5, 2021. (“2021 Estimation Methodology”.) This memorandum sets forth the methodology used to derive the 2021 estimates of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population.
- Note: Information about the methods used to develop revised estimates of H-2 workers is provided in the JBS International memorandum titled “Using Fiscal Year 2016 2017 and 2018 Data to Estimate the Number of 2017 H-2 Workers” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above).
Memorandum from JBS International Inc. to Daniel Carroll, Department of Labor/Employment and Training Administration/Office of Policy Development and Research, "Supporting Materials Concerning the 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimates", December 17, 2021.
2021 Estimation Methodology Appendix B Tables, which include:
- Table I: Summary Table of National and State Estimates of The LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population
  - Note: This table has been replaced by the table titled “Final Estimates of the 2021 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population, Summary Table” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above).
- Table II: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Base Estimates of the Number of Active Agricultural Workers
- Table III: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Estimate the Numbers of LSC Agricultural Workers that Are H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers.
  - Note: This table has been replaced by the table titled “Data Sources and Calculations Used to Estimate the Numbers of LSC Agricultural Workers that Are H-2A Agricultural Workers and H-2B Forestry Workers – April 2022” in the FINAL 2021 LSC AGRICULTURAL WORKER POVERTY POPULATION ESTIMATES section of this webpage (see above).
- Table IV: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the Number of Active LSC Agricultural Workers that Are Not H-2 Workers.
- Table V: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the Number of LSC Dependents of Active Agricultural Workers.
- Table VI: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of the LSC Out-Of-The Workforce Population (Number of LSC Out-of-Workforce Agricultural Workers and LSC Dependents of Out-of-Workforce Agricultural Workers)
- Table VII: Data Sources and Calculations Used to Develop Estimates of Size of the LSC Retiree Agricultural Population (LSC Retired Agricultural Workers and LSC dependents of retirees)
- Table VIII: Estimated Number of Workers Unauthorized and In Poverty Potentially Eligible Based on Provisions of Section 1626.4 of the LSC Regulations
Major Differences between 2021 and 2016 LSC Agricultural Worker Poverty Population Estimates

December 2021 Webinar about the 2021 Estimates

Past Events and Other Resources

Webinar on Updating the 2016 Methodology (July 8, 2020)

This webinar summarized the work ETA will be conducting, described the 2016 methodology, identified potential changes to the 2016 estimation methodology, and solicited participants’ questions and suggestions.

Video: Online Briefing—Updated Estimate of the LSC Agricultural Worker Population (92 minutes)
Slide Deck 1—LSC Staff: LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update—Overview
Slide Deck 2—ETA (Daniel Carroll and Susan Gabbard): LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimate Update—ETA

Briefing to National Legal Aid and Defender Association Farmworker Section (May 21, 2020)

In this briefing, LSC staff provided to the Farmworker Section of the National Legal Aid and Defender Association an overview of the estimation methodology adopted in 2016, the allocation formula, and plans for the 2020 update.

Slide Deck: LSC Agricultural Worker Population Estimates & Funding Allocations

Stakeholder Input

National Legal Aid and Defender Association Farmworker Section Questions and Comments (July 1, 2020)

Agricultural Worker

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